Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26f2…1761 sports 447 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$812 (-2%) realized −$812 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%226W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days+$376
14 days+$565
30 days+$1,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$724
other 26% −$13
world 0% +$52
crypto 0% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +29.6% +17.3% 63% 63% +11.6%
≤30d 181 +21.2% +9.6% 57% 53% -2.4%
≤90d 349 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 47% -14.3%
all 421 +5.3% -4.8% 54% 50% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 50% -11.5%
10% -13.9% 47% -20.0%
15% -22.2% 42% -27.7%
20% -29.8% 34% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$60 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$812
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses226 / 195
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions0
Markets (closed)421 / 447
History coverage114d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 421 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $98 +$102 +104%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $82 +$67 +82%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $28 +$20 +72%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $219 −$91 -42%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $87 −$42 -49%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $47 +$53 +112%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $106 −$47 -44%
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $67 +$63 +93%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $27 −$19 -71%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $81 +$119 +147%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $176 +$124 +70%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Wi Jun 27 $100 +$28 +28%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $97 +$77 +79%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $121 −$48 -40%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $83 −$18 -22%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $59 +$41 +69%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$30 +49%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$20 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $67 +$7 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $155 −$153 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $126 −$94 -75%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 +$77 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $51 +$75 +148%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $68 +$81 +119%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 AND Qatar Jun 16 $51 +$34 +67%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$16 +66%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$87 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $48 +$52 +108%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Bra Jun 14 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $158 −$155 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $45 −$7 -15%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $39 +$61 +156%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $187 +$212 +113%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $230 +$119 +52%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$49 +156%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $47 +$66 +139%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $152 −$59 -39%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $33 −$5 -14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $57 −$7 -12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $48 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $28 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $29 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $23 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $23 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $28 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $59 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $69 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $8 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $7 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $22 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $14 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1531 history records