Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
26 0x26f1…ebee sports 308 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate52%148W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$66
14 days+$121
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$18
crypto 6% −$25
other 2% +$5
economics 1% −$7
world 1% −$6
tech 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +41.6% +28.1% 86% 57% +21.9%
≤30d 98 +3.5% -6.3% 58% 47% -5.4%
≤90d 230 -0.0% -9.6% 53% 46% -7.2%
all 285 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 46% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 46% -9.8%
10% -21.1% 45% -18.4%
15% -28.7% 43% -26.3%
20% -35.7% 39% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses148 / 137
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions23
Markets (closed)285 / 308
History coverage143d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 20¢ 26¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 68¢ 99¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+46%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 39¢ 40¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $20 +$14 +70%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 16 $41 −$1 -2%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 07 $10 +$1 +10%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $10 +$5 +50%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 07 $10 +$7 +67%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 07 $10 +$7 +70%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $10 +$12 +114%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 07 $10 +$12 +119%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $20 +$34 +165%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins Jun 03 $7 +$5 +67%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 03 $7 +$5 +74%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 03 $10 +$7 +67%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $20 +$28 +140%
Chisinau: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Sumit Nagal Jun 03 $10 +$8 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 03 $10 +$8 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $10 +$9 +90%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 03 $10 +$9 +93%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 03 $10 +$11 +107%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 03 $10 +$11 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $10 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $10 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $10 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $10 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $10 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $10 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $10 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $10 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $10 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $10 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $20 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 7? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 9d
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 56¢ $10 9d
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball BUY Paris Basketball 61¢ $10 9d
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex BUY Essex 55¢ $10 9d
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Glamorgan BUY Lancashire 58¢ $10 9d
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Kent BUY Kent 58¢ $10 9d
Libema Open, Qualification: Robin Montgomery vs Joanna Garland BUY Robin Montgomery 59¢ $10 9d
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 67¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.91 · official $314.92 (match) · 504 history records