Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
26 0x26ee…0a94 other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$24
politics 29% −$16
sports 12% +$25
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$2
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 143 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×10.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage130d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $286 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $274 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $260 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 20 $295 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $288 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 10 $218 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $819 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $247 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $446 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $235 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $258 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $286 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $241 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $238 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $301 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $294 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $289 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $301 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $217 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $267 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $241 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 26 $225 $0 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $252 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $287 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $277 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 7h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 23h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $36 42h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $36 6d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $40 11d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $40 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 13d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 13d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $277 22d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $260 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $260 28d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $292 29d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $292 29d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $284 29d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $284 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $295 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $295 31d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 453 history records