Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x26ed…49a5 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$789 (+43%) realized +$785 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$340
14 days+$340
30 days+$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$722
weather 5% +$60
economics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +23.4% +11.7% 80% 80% +24.2%
≤30d 5 +23.4% +11.7% 80% 80% +24.2%
≤90d 9 +62.8% +47.3% 89% 89% +41.2%
all 29 +28.7% +16.4% 59% 52% +33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.4% 52% +33.5%
10% +5.3% 52% +20.7%
15% -4.9% 48% +9.0%
20% -14.2% 38% -1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$18 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.6 per $1 lost it wins $4.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$785
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage108d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$131 +64%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$72 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $203 +$140 +69%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$98 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $102 +$146 +143%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $60 +$99 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $60 +$51 +86%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $25 +$10 +41%
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? Mar 18 $15 +$12 +82%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $50 +$27 +55%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 12? Mar 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 12? Mar 11 $10 −$4 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 11? Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 11? Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 11 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $40 +$35 +87%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $10 +$19 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 7? Mar 07 $17 +$83 +491%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 7? Mar 07 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $28 −$5 -17%
Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? Mar 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 5? Mar 05 $10 −$3 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $333 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $274 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $343 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $300 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 5d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 38d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 38d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 99¢ $247 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $60 67d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 73d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $60 73d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 94d
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 94d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 94d
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 94d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 94d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $75 94d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 94d
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 101d
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 101d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 12? SELL Yes 50¢ $21 101d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 12? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 101d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.38 · official $204.41 (match) · 63 history records