Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
26 0x26ec…682c other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$107 (+5%) realized +$105 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate41%38W / 55L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$4
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$8
economics 20% $0
other 17% +$123
world 16% $0
crypto 11% −$21
politics 4% +$7
tech 2% $0
finance 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.1% -12.4% 67% 50% -11.7%
≤30d 41 +26.2% +14.1% 59% 29% -1.8%
≤90d 93 +14.6% +3.7% 41% 27% -5.3%
all 93 +14.6% +3.7% 41% 27% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 27% -5.3%
10% -6.2% 20% -14.4%
15% -15.3% 16% -22.6%
20% -23.6% 11% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses38 / 55
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage67d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in June? Yes $8 $11 +$4 (+51%)
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 11¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $216 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $32 −$26 -80%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play Jun 14 $65 +$8 +12%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $65 +$6 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 +$2 +8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 11 $317 $0 -0%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $89 +$7 +8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $86 +$9 +10%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 +$4 +88%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $85 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $9 −$9 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $11 +$12 +109%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playo Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 $0 -6%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $95 +$4 +4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $30 +$10 +33%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $55 +$7 +12%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 05 $85 +$69 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -46%
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $5 +$50 +1103%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Jun 01 $42 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? May 31 $47 $0 -1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 +$2 +48%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $37 +$4 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? May 26 $6 $0 -7%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 May 22 $7 −$1 -18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 May 19 $18 −$17 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 May 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by June 30? May 19 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 19 $27 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 18 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 99¢ $73 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 99¢ $73 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 99¢ $72 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 99¢ $71 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 99¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 66¢ $4 39h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 45¢ $3 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $25 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 83¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $5 5d
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes $0 6d
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play SELL Marsborne 97¢ $73 6d
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Play BUY Marsborne 87¢ $65 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 95¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 95¢ $70 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 87¢ $65 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 72¢ $17 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 76¢ $27 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 44¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 69¢ $25 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $1 7d
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 11¢ $2 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $103 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $103 10d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $93 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.05 · official $15.05 (match) · 271 history records