Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26ea…3674 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$5
other 21% −$1
sports 5% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.8% -6.1% 75% 25% -8.1%
≤30d 18 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 11% -8.7%
≤90d 18 +1.8% -7.9% 44% 11% -8.7%
all 35 -1.7% -11.0% 51% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -8.9%
10% -19.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage484d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $42 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $78 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $42 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $16 +$1 +9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $76 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on May 23? May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 21 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $7 $0 +2%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $2 $0 -11%
SIU-Edwardsville vs. Houston Mar 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will De’Andre Hunter win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Mar 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ajax win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 14 $11 $0 +3%
Anderlecht vs. Fenerbahce Mar 03 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $27 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $42 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $37 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $40 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $19 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $28 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.27 · official $43.27 (match) · 97 history records