Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26ea…2f4b crypto 799 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,265 (+0%) realized +$1,117 · open +$1,148
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate81%649W / 149L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$817per market
Trades / day36.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$47,848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27,505
7 days+$19,181
14 days+$19,181
30 days+$19,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$641
crypto 13% +$2,684
sports 1% +$355
weather 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.2% -24.2% 73% 27% -1.7%
≤30d 15 -16.2% -24.2% 73% 27% -1.7%
≤90d 798 -4.4% -13.5% 81% 30% -7.0%
all 798 -4.4% -13.5% 81% 30% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 30% -7.0%
10% -21.8% 13% -15.9%
15% ← realistic here -29.4% 7% -24.0%
20% -36.3% 3% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$382 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$47,848
Realized+$1,117
Unrealized+$1,148
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses649 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)798 / 799
History coverage69d
Avg bet$817
Trades / day36.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 798 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $46,700 $47,848 +$1,148 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $82,318 +$6,430 +8%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83,300 +$1,700 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,120 −$1,101 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,375 −$4,709 -88%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16,840 +$3,160 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64,903 +$5,097 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,298 −$3,280 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $63,990 +$20,207 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18,028 −$16,316 -90%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $72,081 +$7,919 +11%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25? Jun 11 $1,000 +$17 +2%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-04-25? Jun 11 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26? Jun 11 $85 +$34 +40%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-04-25? Jun 11 $236 +$14 +6%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $22,518 −$22,481 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 25? Apr 25 $50 −$43 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +34%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $176 +$24 +14%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,320 +$104 +8%
Will FC Seoul win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,857 +$138 +7%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $474 −$472 -100%
Will Bucheon FC 1995 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $200 −$10 -5%
Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $153 −$7 -5%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $88 +$12 +14%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin Bonzi Apr 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 24? Apr 25 $81 +$28 +34%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $160 +$40 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $600 +$22 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 24? Apr 25 $1,102 +$68 +6%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $5,819 +$552 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 24? Apr 25 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $155 −$31 -20%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $250 +$21 +8%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $1,663 +$219 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $213 −$123 -58%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $5,000 +$150 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $19 −$17 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25? Apr 24 $50 −$48 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 24 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 24 $3 $0 +3%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $18 +$3 +16%
Will Randers FC win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $30 +$11 +36%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 23? Apr 24 $94 +$15 +16%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $170 +$41 +24%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $200 +$32 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10,006 21m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $20,012 21m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,002 21m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10,004 22m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $3,710 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $613 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $16 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $74 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $37 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $920 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,546 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,150 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $350 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $108 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $65 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $60 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,552 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $65 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $0 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $33 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,847.74 · official $47,847.74 (match) · 3378 history records