Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26ea…d9c7 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 383d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+1%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$40
14 days+$46
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$7
politics 23% −$2
tech 18% −$2
culture 11% −$1
sports 3% +$52
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +4.6% -5.3% 25% 12% -8.7%
≤30d 12 +9.4% -1.0% 42% 25% -8.4%
≤90d 15 +7.6% -2.7% 47% 20% -8.4%
all 47 +2.4% -7.3% 38% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 6% -8.9%
10% -16.2% 6% -17.6%
15% -24.3% 4% -25.6%
20% -31.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×10.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.19 per $1 lost it wins $7.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage383d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 24? No 100¢ 98¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 22 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $788 −$1 -0%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $121 +$45 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 19? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 08 $21 +$6 +31%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? Jun 06 $23 +$10 +46%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e Apr 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 9-15? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on February 6? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jan 31 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.80 on January 14? Jan 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 6? Dec 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on November 5? Nov 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + D66? Oct 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Oct 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $20 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $4900 on August 20? Sep 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jaime Mulet win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jul 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $619 −$1 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 16 $308 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 16 $312 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 16 $316 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 04 $317 $0 -0%
Will Federico Valverde win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $323 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 04 $315 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $784 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $785 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL No 99¢ $738 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $745 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $788 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $624 4d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $625 4d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $599 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $598 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $635 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 72¢ $121 4d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13d
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig BUY Ketlen Souza 76¢ $21 15d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 68¢ $23 33d
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e SELL No 100¢ $17 58d
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e SELL Yes 0¢ $0 58d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 68d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 83d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 101d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $12 101d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 101d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.83 · official $12.83 (match) · 122 history records