Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26e8…1c01 sports 235 markets active 2h ago coverage 703d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$407 (-5%) realized −$408 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%136W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$58
14 days−$96
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$485
other 14% −$33
crypto 2% +$12
politics 1% +$65
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -22.3% -29.7% 55% 55% -32.6%
≤30d 32 -17.6% -25.5% 56% 56% -31.5%
≤90d 203 -12.1% -20.5% 58% 55% -15.9%
all 233 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 55% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 55% -14.9%
10% -25.2% 47% -23.0%
15% -32.4% 31% -30.5%
20% -39.1% 22% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$24 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

703d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$408
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses136 / 97
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)233 / 235
History coverage703d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $35 +$11 +32%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $23 +$11 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$8 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $7 +$3 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $22 +$14 +65%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 −$23 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $17 +$4 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $22 −$22 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $22 $0 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 +$7 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 08 $27 −$26 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $22 +$5 +21%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $51 −$50 -99%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $45 +$6 +14%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 04 $26 +$19 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 04 $16 +$10 +62%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Te May 28 $16 −$16 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 27 $46 −$45 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 27 $32 +$13 +42%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5 May 26 $24 +$8 +33%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 25 $35 −$34 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v May 24 $19 +$16 +86%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. B May 24 $21 −$21 -99%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $31 +$9 +29%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 4.5 May 24 $26 +$5 +18%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 23 $37 −$37 -99%
Girona FC vs. Elche CF: O/U 4.5 May 23 $31 +$6 +19%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 23 $22 +$10 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 21 $36 −$36 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 20 $25 +$11 +44%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 May 20 $52 +$25 +48%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $100 +$31 +31%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 19 $38 −$38 -99%
CD Leganés vs. SD Huesca: O/U 3.5 May 19 $40 +$14 +36%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $38 +$17 +46%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5 May 17 $117 −$10 -8%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 17 $102 +$15 +14%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 12.5 Total Corners May 17 $77 +$25 +32%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 May 17 $63 +$15 +24%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tam May 16 $19 +$14 +73%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. May 16 $11 +$8 +76%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5 May 16 $33 +$8 +23%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $25 +$8 +34%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5 May 16 $16 +$8 +52%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 15 $13 +$3 +26%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants May 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $46 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $46 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $35 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $23 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $14 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $13 41h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $39 42h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $10 43h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $7 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $23 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $21 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $17 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $22 9d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $22 9d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $22 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 72¢ $27 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 82¢ $22 13d
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 BUY Yes 57¢ $51 15d
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Alex Molcan 87¢ $45 16d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 57¢ $26 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 61¢ $16 17d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Te BUY No 57¢ $16 23d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $46 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 70¢ $32 25d
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $24 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.19 · official $46.55 (match) · 457 history records