Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x26e7…016d sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$540 (-35%) realized −$540 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$479
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$541
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -17.7% -25.5% 50% 50% -64.2%
≤90d 5 -15.8% -23.8% 60% 60% -42.8%
all 5 -15.8% -23.8% 60% 60% -42.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 60% -42.8%
10% -31.1% 60% -48.3%
15% -37.8% 20% -53.3%
20% -43.9% 20% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$395 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$540
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage55d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $487 −$479 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $152 +$98 +65%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $295 +$85 +29%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 08 $236 +$64 +27%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 23 $314 −$310 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $36 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $487 8d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $152 20d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 77¢ $295 39d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $236 42d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 59¢ $314 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.19 · official $63.19 (match) · 10 history records