Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
26 0x26e7…cc6c sports 514 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,441 (-1%) realized −$200 · open −$3,241
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%234W / 434L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$835per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$3,494est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$9,794now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$3,462
other 44% −$13,060
world 1% −$866
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -84.8% -86.2% 7% 7% -89.2%
≤30d 395 -44.6% -49.8% 25% 24% -47.5%
≤90d 668 -18.2% -25.9% 35% 34% -25.6%
all 668 -18.2% -25.9% 35% 34% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 34% -25.6%
10% -33.0% 31% -32.7%
15% ← realistic here -39.5% 30% -39.2%
20% -45.4% 27% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,001) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$669 vs −$553 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$9,794
Realized−$200
Unrealized−$3,241
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses234 / 434
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$3,494
Open positions5
Markets (closed)668 / 514
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$835
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $8,700 $8,190 −$510 (-6%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 44¢ 44¢ $978 $967 −$11 (-1%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $1,000 $353 −$647 (-65%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 55¢ 56¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2,100 $25 −$2,075 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 374 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $800 −$800 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Emma Raducanu vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 20 $110 −$110 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Dalma Galfi Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 20 $573 −$573 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elise Mertens vs Ella Seidel Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-09? Jun 20 $178 −$178 -100%
Wrexham AFC vs. Watford FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2025-12-14? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Miami Open: Alycia Parks vs Coco Gauff Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-01-03? Jun 20 $291 −$291 -100%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-31? Jun 20 $2,755 −$2,755 -100%
Oeiras 3: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Francisca Jorge Jun 20 $292 −$292 -100%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Stan Wawrinka Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Elena Rybakina Jun 20 $196 −$196 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 20 $389 −$389 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Quentin Halys vs Jack Draper Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Lulu Sun Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-31? Jun 20 $773 −$773 -100%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-03-03? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05? Jun 20 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Shintaro Mo Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Linda Noskova Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-12? Jun 20 $983 −$983 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-12? Jun 20 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? Jun 20 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 20 $593 −$593 -100%
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-01-13? Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 20 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Elvina Kalieva vs McCartney Kessler Jun 20 $209 −$209 -100%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Ethan Quinn Jun 20 $396 −$396 -100%
Bristol City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Southend United FC win on 2026-04-14? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Miami Open: Karolina Muchova vs Katie Boulter Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) Jun 20 $400 −$400 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2025-12-26? Jun 20 $292 −$292 -100%
Will FC Fredericia win on 2026-04-13? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Nicolas Jarry vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Miami Open: Alexandra Eala vs Magda Linette Jun 20 $1,125 −$1,125 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 20 $949 −$949 -100%
BMW Open: Justin Engel vs Vit Kopriva Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Barletta: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Maria Sakkari vs Paula Badosa Jun 20 $259 −$259 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-06? Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 55¢ $203 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $994 3h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 15¢ $76 15h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 15¢ $2 15h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 14¢ $2 15h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 13¢ $1 15h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 13¢ $3 15h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Laslo Djere 12¢ $1 15h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Laslo Djere 12¢ $25 15h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $41 21h
Set 2 Winner: Minaur vs Nakashima BUY Minaur 67¢ $135 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 58¢ $51 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 37¢ $169 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 61¢ $253 23h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 51¢ $406 24h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,015 39h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,015 39h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,014 2d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $8 2d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $68 2d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $99 2d
Set 2 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery BUY Fery 57¢ $20 2d
Set 2 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery BUY Fery 57¢ $20 2d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 67¢ $162 2d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 66¢ $3 2d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 74¢ $282 2d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 74¢ $282 2d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 47¢ $1,016 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,794.31 · official $9,794.31 (match) · 3500 history records