Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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26 0x26e6…cc89 crypto 899 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,111 (-6%) realized −$1,717 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate51%644W / 619L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day186.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,750
7 days−$1,770
14 days−$1,740
30 days−$1,717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$9
finance 0% +$31
other 0% −$14
world 0% −$12
sports 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 688 -56.2% -60.4% 26% 16% -46.7%
≤30d 1263 -28.1% -35.0% 51% 22% -17.6%
≤90d 1263 -28.1% -35.0% 51% 22% -17.6%
all 1263 -28.1% -35.0% 51% 22% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover186.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.0% 22% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 12% -25.5%
15% -46.9% 9% -32.7%
20% -52.1% 6% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$1,717
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses644 / 619
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1263 / 899
History coverage15d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day186.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+33%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 80¢ 64¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 55¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? Yes 51¢ 21¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 68¢ 22¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 82¢ 23¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-73%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 5AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$15 -104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 18 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -113%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $0 +$1 +1101%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 3, 5AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 4, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.15 · official $72.15 (match) · 3500 history records