Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26e4…2acb
other · 42 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$14 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage470d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $18 +$3 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $77 −$1 -1%
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 18 $47 $0 -0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 Mar 17 $1 $0 +0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $116 $0 +0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 15 $6 $0 +0%
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 15 $105 +$1 +0%
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 Mar 14 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jul 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Will the Mumbai Indians win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 11 $21 $0 -1%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $4 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 06 $16 $0 +2%
Will X buy TikTok? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 28 $1 $0 +15%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $1 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 05 $1 $0 -13%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $20 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump say Gold during his presser with Starmer on Feb 27? Mar 20 $14 +$6 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% +$4
other 19% +$2
world 14% +$2
crypto 6% $0
politics 6% +$6
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $21 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $18 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $16 43h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 45h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $0 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $12 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 35¢ $20 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 36¢ $33 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $17 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $44 2d
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 SELL Yes 38¢ $47 86d
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 BUY Yes 39¢ $47 86d
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 87d
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 87d
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 SELL No 90¢ $116 88d
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 BUY No 90¢ $116 88d
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 SELL Yes 3¢ $6 89d
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 BUY Yes 3¢ $6 89d
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 SELL No 99¢ $62 89d
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 SELL No 99¢ $44 89d
Jock Landale: Points O/U 13.5 BUY No 99¢ $105 89d
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 SELL No 94¢ $105 90d
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY No 91¢ $23 90d
Vince Williams Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY No 91¢ $79 90d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $1 325d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $21 342d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.9% -3.2% 67% 33% -7.2%
≤30d 3 +6.9% -3.2% 67% 33% -7.2%
≤90d 8 +2.6% -7.2% 38% 12% -8.8%
all 41 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 10% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 10% -8.0%
10% -15.7% 5% -16.8%
15% -23.8% 5% -24.9%
20% -31.3% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.66 · official $20.66 (match) · 99 history records