Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
26 0x26e2…7af9 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$1
other 22% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 50% -6.0%
≤30d 14 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 50% -6.0%
≤90d 14 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 50% -6.0%
all 14 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 50% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 50% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 29% -15.0%
15% -27.6% 21% -23.2%
20% -34.7% 7% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.98 · official $3.98 (match) · 36 history records