Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26e2…1a63
crypto · 847 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$8,339 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,339 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,339
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses460 / 531
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions0
Markets (closed)991 / 847
History coverage24d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day145.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 991 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17,347
7 days−$16,345
14 days−$10,570
30 days−$8,339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Northwestern State Demons 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Seahawks vs. 49ers 49ers 20¢ 0¢ $414 $0 −$414 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Tech Hokies Virginia Tech Hokies 12¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs 6¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Northwestern State Demons vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2PM ET Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $47 −$8 -17%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jun 13 $414 −$414 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Tech Hokies Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7AM ET Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Suns vs. Knicks Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Akron Zips Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 26? Jun 13 $115 −$115 -100%
Solana Up or Down - July 22, 2PM ET Jun 13 $60 +$2 +3%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 9? Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 13 $78 −$22 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6PM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Qualification: Ellen Perez vs Oksana Selekhme Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Jacksonville Dolphins Jun 13 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$24 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4PM ET Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% +$8,962
sports 8% +$703
other 1% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 95¢ $230 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 67¢ $100 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 57¢ $54 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $47 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $40 5h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 72¢ $441 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $39 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $75 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $49 5h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $59 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $13 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 492 -57.8% -61.9% 22% 21% -67.9%
≤30d 991 -15.6% -23.6% 46% 45% -23.6%
≤90d 991 -15.6% -23.6% 46% 45% -23.6%
all 991 -15.6% -23.6% 46% 45% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover145.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 45% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 44% -30.9%
15% -37.6% 40% -37.6%
20% -43.7% 31% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records