Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26df…bc19 crypto 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,105 (-17%) realized −$1,105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%27W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$398
7 days−$556
14 days−$1,216
30 days−$1,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,705
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.3% -26.1% 20% 20% -53.2%
≤30d 92 -22.2% -29.6% 23% 23% -34.3%
≤90d 115 -25.1% -32.2% 23% 23% -34.9%
all 115 -25.1% -32.2% 23% 23% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 23% -34.9%
10% -38.7% 23% -41.1%
15% -44.6% 23% -46.8%
20% -50.1% 22% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$46 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses27 / 88
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage34d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (72 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$36 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$28 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$56 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$15 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$97 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$21 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$30 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $177 −$168 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$40 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $109 +$38 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $116 −$16 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$157 +298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $136 −$129 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $71 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $93 +$82 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $212 −$30 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $43 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$47 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $49 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$70 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $77 −$73 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $53 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$37 +353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 08 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$26 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 06 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 06 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 06 $81 +$151 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $22 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.42 (match) · 343 history records