Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
26 0x26df…0eb0 crypto 1522 markets active 4d ago coverage 49d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$358 (+1%) realized +$358 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate73%1115W / 405L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$126
other 2% −$82
weather 0% −$11
sports 0% +$2
politics 0% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -14.3% -22.5% 73% 41% -22.0%
≤30d 548 +1.1% -8.5% 84% 34% -11.4%
≤90d 1520 -1.1% -10.6% 73% 47% -8.9%
all 1520 -1.1% -10.6% 73% 47% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 47% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 27% -17.6%
15% -26.9% 21% -25.5%
20% -34.1% 16% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$358
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1115 / 405
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1520 / 1522
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1520 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$7 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 28 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 28 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 28 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 28 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 28 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 28 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 28 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 27 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 27 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 27 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 25¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records