Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
26 0x26dd…548a crypto 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+2%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%138W / 5L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$5
other 25% +$3
politics 14% +$2
world 6% +$60
tech 5% $0
sports 4% +$1
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 31 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 122 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.3%
all 143 +0.9% -8.7% 97% 1% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 1% -7.8%
10% -17.4% 1% -16.6%
15% -25.4% 1% -24.7%
20% -32.7% 1% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×8.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×234.87 per $1 lost it wins $234.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses138 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage564d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 06 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +1%
Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $47 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 26? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? May 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $28 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24? May 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24? May 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24? May 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 24? May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe May 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50? May 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary elect May 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 18? May 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17? May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $46 40h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? BUY No 100¢ $25 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $33 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $51 17d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 20d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 21d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec BUY No 99¢ $18 21d
Will Dylan Colbert advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e BUY No 100¢ $29 22d
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Rob Sand win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary election? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 24d
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 24d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 25d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 BUY No 100¢ $28 25d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 BUY No 100¢ $16 26d
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 100¢ $28 26d
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 BUY No 100¢ $27 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 99¢ $28 26d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $25 28d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $28 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $17 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.21 · official $62.14 (match) · 292 history records