Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:36:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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26 0x26dd…0249 sports 1089 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,560 (-13%) realized −$6,495 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%552W / 520L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day44.8pace
Fees−$567est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,912
other 15% −$304
world 0% −$79
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -0.8% -10.2% 51% 48% +9.9%
≤30d 664 -3.7% -12.9% 49% 48% -23.8%
≤90d 1072 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 49% -13.5%
all 1072 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 49% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 49% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 45% -21.8%
15% -27.8% 38% -29.4%
20% -34.9% 32% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$41 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$774
Realized−$6,495
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses552 / 520
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$567
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1072 / 1089
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day44.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1072 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $164 −$36 (-18%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 53¢ 34¢ $115 $75 −$40 (-35%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Linda Noskova 83¢ 80¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-3%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 100¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+41%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Darya Astakhova 63¢ 78¢ $42 $51 +$10 (+23%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 56¢ 74¢ $34 $46 +$11 (+33%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 50¢ 50¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 55¢ 66¢ $29 $35 +$5 (+19%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 60¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 62¢ 96¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+54%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Noemi Basiletti 80¢ 22¢ $39 $11 −$28 (-72%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Deborah Chiesa 23¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Daniel Galan 77¢ 90¢ $9 $10 +$2 (+18%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 45¢ 44¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 31¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 13¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 50¢ 47¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Leo Team 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Chloe Paquet 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $17 +$9 +54%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $265 −$256 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $11 +$4 +34%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +140%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $113 −$80 -70%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +134%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $28 +$7 +26%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $47 +$15 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $78 +$119 +152%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $7 +$14 +197%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $26 −$10 -40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $85 +$148 +174%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $60 −$49 -82%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $69 −$54 -77%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $25 +$25 +97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $57 +$38 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $163 −$163 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $45 +$42 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -72%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $42 +$14 +33%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$4 -33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 +$3 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $227 +$598 +263%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 23¢ $2 2m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 23¢ $2 2m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 23¢ $1 2m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 23¢ $2 2m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 23¢ $2 2m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 23¢ $2 2m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 36¢ $4 4m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 43¢ $1 9m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 50¢ $11 11m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 57¢ $21 11m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $13 12m
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 13¢ $4 14m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $13 18m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $14 20m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 83¢ $73 21m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $18 22m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ $3 22m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 63¢ $21 23m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Darya Astakhova 63¢ $22 23m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $41 43m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $14 51m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $13 51m
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 22¢ $3 54m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 56¢ $28 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $12 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $28 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 77¢ $9 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $14 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $13 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 53¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $773.84 · official $773.86 (match) · 3500 history records