Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x26dd…d1cb crypto 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%82W / 3L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$2
other 29% −$1
politics 13% +$1
tech 6% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
world 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 18 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 58 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.2%
all 85 +0.2% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses82 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)85 / 88
History coverage541d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? Jun 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? May 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25? May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F May 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 23? May 23 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ja’Mel Brown win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary ele May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Harris English win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Serbia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on May 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 14? May 15 $22 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting? May 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 20-26? Apr 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 25? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 25? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on April 21 Apr 21 $11 $0 +1%
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) win the most Apr 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Joe Hathaway win the NJ-11 special election? Apr 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on April 15? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on April 15? Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY No 100¢ $28 7h
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec BUY No 99¢ $11 19d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec BUY No 99¢ $15 20d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $24 20d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 22d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $29 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 24d
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $12 25d
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $24 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $11 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 29d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 23? BUY No 99¢ $12 31d
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F BUY No 100¢ $13 31d
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe BUY No 100¢ $20 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? BUY No 99¢ $15 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $18 35d
Will Harris English win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 100¢ $11 35d
Will Ja’Mel Brown win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary ele BUY No 100¢ $30 35d
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 100¢ $13 37d
Will Serbia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 38d
Will Serbia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.94 · official $74.94 (match) · 178 history records