Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x26dc…f66a crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+2%) realized +$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$96
14 days+$98
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$3
other 33% −$1
world 9% −$1
sports 7% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.1% -13.3% 40% 20% -4.8%
≤30d 11 -1.8% -11.2% 55% 9% -7.7%
≤90d 11 -1.8% -11.2% 55% 9% -7.7%
all 11 -1.8% -11.2% 55% 9% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 9% -7.7%
10% -19.7% 9% -16.5%
15% -27.4% 9% -24.6%
20% -34.6% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$32 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$484
Realized+$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage13d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $484 $484 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $480 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $451 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $125 −$125 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $279 +$221 +79%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $482 −$1 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $550 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $432 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $449 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $511 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $510 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.76 · official $483.76 (match) · 29 history records