Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26dc…9b1a world 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% $0
other 26% +$14
politics 13% −$2
sports 7% −$2
crypto 6% +$4
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 0% -9.5%
all 40 +1.0% -8.7% 45% 5% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -8.2%
10% -17.4% 5% -17.0%
15% -25.4% 2% -25.0%
20% -32.7% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage258d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $44 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $22 +$14 +64%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 26 $26 −$3 -10%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $24 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 14 $18 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Oct 12 $11 +$4 +35%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $12 22m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 23m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $28 23m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $44 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $44 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $43 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $43 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $43 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $43 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $44 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $44 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $23 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $17 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $39 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $34 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $34 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $6 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $33 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $39 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $35 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $38 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records