trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 49¢ | 50¢ | $51 | $51 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $7 | $0 | -5% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $13 | +$6 | +51% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $116 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $85 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 17 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Jun 26 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? | Apr 22 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 21 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? | Apr 21 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? | Apr 19 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? | Mar 21 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? | Mar 18 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +7.2% | -3.0% | 33% | 17% | -7.4% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +6.2% | -3.9% | 29% | 14% | -7.7% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +6.2% | -3.9% | 29% | 14% | -7.7% |
| all | 17 | -3.5% | -12.7% | 41% | 6% | -8.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.7% | 6% | -8.5% |
| 10% | -21.0% | 6% | -17.3% |
| 15% | -28.7% | 6% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -35.7% | 6% | -32.6% |