Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26d8…be73 sports 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$546 (+13%) realized −$42 · open +$588
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%82W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$202
14 days−$173
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$16
other 34% +$703
politics 18% −$42
culture 4% +$21
weather 1% −$10
world 1% −$14
economics 0% −$10
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -45.2% -50.5% 30% 30% -29.1%
≤30d 77 -5.0% -14.0% 48% 45% -16.6%
≤90d 131 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 49% -16.0%
all 170 -1.2% -10.6% 48% 46% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 46% -8.3%
10% -19.2% 46% -17.1%
15% -27.0% 44% -25.1%
20% -34.1% 37% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$1,236
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$588
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses82 / 88
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)170 / 173
History coverage151d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $301 $747 +$446 (+148%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 62¢ $300 $469 +$169 (+56%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 39¢ 17¢ $47 $20 −$27 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $200 +$112 +56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $11 −$7 -64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $29 −$29 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $37 −$29 -79%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 −$29 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $23 +$17 +73%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $12 +$13 +105%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $16 −$16 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $11 +$14 +134%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $45 −$44 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $54 +$31 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $69 +$29 +43%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $13 −$12 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $19 −$19 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $42 −$41 -96%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 +$51 +101%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $40 +$30 +75%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $45 −$36 -81%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $17 +$13 +79%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $13 +$11 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 +$12 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 +$6 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 17 $22 +$14 +64%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$8 +70%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 +$16 +122%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$30 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $23 +$37 +158%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$8 +52%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 +$13 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 30¢ $12 9m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $313 10m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $36 1h
Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $200 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $46 11h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $29 24h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $42 30h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 8¢ $8 31h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $37 32h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 34h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $21 34h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $21 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $16 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $12 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $23 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $45 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $11 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $54 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $48 4d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $9 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $13 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $19 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,236.40 · official $1,236.40 (match) · 431 history records