Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x26d7…ba98 other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$196 (+3%) realized +$184 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate76%78W / 24L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$66
14 days+$81
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$164
crypto 25% +$10
world 8% −$6
tech 5% $0
culture 3% $0
finance 2% +$1
economics 1% +$1
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +6.8% -3.4% 81% 69% +3.1%
≤30d 22 +6.6% -3.5% 68% 55% -2.3%
≤90d 34 +6.8% -3.4% 74% 47% -5.2%
all 102 +7.0% -3.2% 76% 38% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 38% -6.7%
10% -12.5% 14% -15.6%
15% -20.9% 10% -23.8%
20% -28.7% 7% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized+$184
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses78 / 24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)102 / 107
History coverage280d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $99 $120 +$21 (+21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $112 $105 −$7 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +58%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $105 +$5 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$2 +12%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $102 +$16 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $121 −$2 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $92 −$3 -3%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $72 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 06 $178 +$3 +2%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $69 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$7 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $264 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $27 +$3 +12%
Will Solana reach $110 May 11-17? May 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $57 +$4 +7%
Will Solana reach $110 May 4-10? May 11 $182 +$2 +1%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $53 +$7 +14%
Will Solana reach $100 April 13-19? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 April 6-12? Apr 19 $213 +$1 +0%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $211 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 23-29? Apr 10 $210 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 16-22? Mar 27 $200 $0 +0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-12-14? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Newcastle United vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-21? Mar 27 $10 +$1 +5%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $30 +$6 +20%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 19 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Solana reach $100 March 9-15? Mar 19 $145 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 11 $148 +$1 +0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $169 $0 -0%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $324 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 March 2-8? Mar 10 $140 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $88 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $112 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $5 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 47h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 3d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $106 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 82¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 62¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $20 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $118 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $10 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $50 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $30 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 56¢ $5 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $5 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $40 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $99 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $50 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $89 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY 15¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $128 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $106 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $108 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $368.85 · official $368.87 (match) · 359 history records