Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:17:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x26d7…1196 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+5%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$71
14 days+$71
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$1
sports 18% +$42
crypto 10% −$15
world 2% −$12
politics 1% −$2
economics 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.2% +2.4% 67% 67% +9.8%
≤30d 9 +13.2% +2.4% 67% 67% +9.8%
≤90d 46 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 46% -4.6%
all 46 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 46% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 46% -4.6%
10% -16.7% 41% -13.7%
15% -24.7% 39% -22.1%
20% -32.1% 35% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage57d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $111 +$15 +14%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $18 +$9 +51%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$42 -70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3 +$5 +152%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $13 −$10 -79%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 17 $10 +$4 +35%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $31 −$23 -74%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $10 −$10 -94%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $5 −$3 -56%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $2 $0 +16%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 05 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $11 −$7 -60%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $51 +$36 +71%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 02 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 02 $6 $0 +7%
Will FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? May 02 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 +$50 +488%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $10 +$7 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 01 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 01 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? Apr 30 $7 −$2 -23%
Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference? Apr 30 $6 +$17 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $126 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $111 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $118 4h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $61 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $18 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 3d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 37d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 38d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 38d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 38d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 38d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 44d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 46d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 46d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 46d
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 47d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $1 49d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) SELL FC Bayern München 17¢ $2 49d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 35¢ $6 49d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 50d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 50d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Tatsuro Taira 61¢ $8 50d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records