Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26d0…cb37 other 612 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$60 (-2%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%203W / 409L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$11
14 days−$23
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$96
sports 10% +$27
crypto 3% −$11
world 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -32.1% -38.6% 27% 27% -25.3%
≤30d 66 +15.4% +4.4% 38% 38% +7.2%
≤90d 374 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 32% -13.3%
all 612 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 33% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 33% -11.9%
10% -20.3% 33% -20.3%
15% -28.0% 33% -28.0%
20% -35.1% 32% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses203 / 409
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)612 / 612
History coverage158d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 612 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$13 +246%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$45 +873%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$15 +290%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $5 +$4 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 +$10 +197%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 +$10 +188%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $5 +$6 +114%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$3 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 16h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 39h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $21 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 8d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 15d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 18d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 21d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 21d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 21d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 21d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 22d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 22d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 22d
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 22d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 22d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 22d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 22d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 22d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 22d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1266 history records