Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
26 0x26d0…68d4 crypto 314 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$678 (-4%) realized −$680 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate47%146W / 167L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$610
30 days−$1,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,031
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -34.9% -41.1% 53% 40% -9.3%
≤30d 313 -42.5% -48.0% 47% 18% -15.1%
≤90d 313 -42.5% -48.0% 47% 18% -15.1%
all 313 -42.5% -48.0% 47% 18% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.0% 18% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -53.0% 10% -23.2%
15% -57.5% 3% -30.6%
20% -61.7% 2% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$680
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses146 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)313 / 314
History coverage27d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET Up 45¢ 50¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET Jun 22 $153 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET Jun 22 $415 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET Jun 22 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $48 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $41 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $32 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $40 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $71 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $62 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.44 · official $22.44 (match) · 1228 history records