Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x26ce…d827 sports 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$258 (+13%) realized +$138 · open +$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%45W / 43L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$218
14 days+$256
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$393
sports 43% −$56
crypto 2% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +1.5% -8.1% 47% 45% +5.6%
≤30d 88 +5.6% -4.5% 51% 50% +5.5%
≤90d 88 +5.6% -4.5% 51% 50% +5.5%
all 88 +5.6% -4.5% 51% 50% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 50% +5.5%
10% -13.6% 49% -4.6%
15% -22.0% 47% -13.8%
20% -29.6% 40% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$120
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses45 / 43
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions15
Markets (closed)88 / 103
History coverage10d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 69¢ $220 $356 +$136 (+62%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 55¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 27¢ 32¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 29¢ 28¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Under 33¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 52¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 51¢ 28¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 13¢ 6¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Netherlands 30¢ 8¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Netherlands 14¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$28 +92%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$39 +129%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 +$35 +169%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$28 +93%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $66 +$56 +85%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +34%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$39 +379%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $20 +$49 +238%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$62 +122%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 +$18 +89%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$202 +132%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$4 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 14¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $10 20h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 29¢ $10 20h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 13¢ $10 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 20h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $32 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 30¢ $10 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 51¢ $10 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 20h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 22h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 31¢ $10 24h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 33¢ $10 24h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 24¢ $10 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 25h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 35¢ $10 25h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 34¢ $10 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 38¢ $10 26h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 48¢ $20 26h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 53¢ $10 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $609.78 · official $621.83 · 205 history records