Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
26 0x26cd…2c85 crypto 868 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$120 (+1%) realized +$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%489W / 379L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$182
14 days−$46
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$326
sports 13% +$50
other 11% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -27.4% -34.3% 40% 33% -34.0%
≤30d 595 +2.5% -7.3% 56% 48% -10.9%
≤90d 868 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 48% -11.4%
all 868 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 48% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 48% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 39% -19.9%
15% -27.0% 32% -27.6%
20% -34.1% 25% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses489 / 379
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)868 / 868
History coverage61d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 868 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $45 −$34 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$9 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$9 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $75 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -99%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 +$1 +69%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$15 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $13 −$8 -60%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$19 -82%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $28 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$6 +42%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $9 +$6 +71%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$2 -38%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$1 -30%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $11 −$3 -23%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +162%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$11 +121%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +144%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$25 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $48 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $7 2d
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 92¢ $7 2d
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 3d
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2239 history records