Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x26cc…5307 crypto 366 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$888 (+3%) realized +$448 · open +$440
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%180W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,755now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$450
7 days+$498
14 days+$852
30 days+$838
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$1,235
other 34% −$275
world 4% −$821
sports 2% +$557
politics 1% −$79
tech 0% +$176
finance 0% −$48
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +12.1% +1.5% 67% 67% +6.1%
≤30d 25 +28.9% +16.6% 68% 60% +3.4%
≤90d 25 +28.9% +16.6% 68% 60% +3.4%
all 364 -8.5% -17.2% 49% 41% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 41% -8.4%
10% -25.1% 36% -17.1%
15% -32.3% 33% -25.1%
20% -39.0% 29% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$53 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$1,755
Realized+$448
Unrealized+$440
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses180 / 184
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)364 / 366
History coverage249d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $822 $1,258 +$436 (+53%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $493 $497 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $204 −$50 -24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $217 +$86 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $329 +$179 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $214 −$212 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $212 +$101 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $606 +$277 +46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$182 +90%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$155 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$49 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,144 +$148 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$500 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 +$37 +37%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$611 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $123 +$135 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $81 −$79 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +142%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Mar 25 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$2 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $100 +$6 +6%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 26 $400 −$400 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 26 $300 −$300 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 06 $281 −$276 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 06 $120 −$118 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 06 $60 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 31 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 31 $183 +$145 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 31 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 31 $57 −$57 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 30 $240 +$185 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 30 $120 +$30 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 30 $60 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 30 $60 +$47 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 30 $60 −$45 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 22 $120 −$98 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 22 $120 +$103 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3PM ET Jan 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2PM ET Jan 21 $340 +$322 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 21 $112 +$92 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $499 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 36h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $154 38h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $217 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $329 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $214 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $212 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $849 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $842 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $443 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 12d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $140 12d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 12d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $714 12d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 13d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $81 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $123 13d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,754.69 · official $1,754.69 (match) · 941 history records