Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:35:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26cb…afc9 other 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (466 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$484 (-6%) realized −$467 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day466.0pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$235
other 33% −$330
crypto 1% −$3
world 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (466 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -36.7% -42.7% 26% 10% -17.0%
≤30d 50 -36.7% -42.7% 26% 10% -17.0%
≤90d 50 -36.7% -42.7% 26% 10% -17.0%
all 50 -36.7% -42.7% 26% 10% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover466.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.7% 10% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -48.2% 4% -25.0%
15% -53.2% 2% -32.2%
20% -57.8% 2% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$25 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,305
Realized−$467
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions14
Markets (closed)50 / 64
History coverage1d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day466.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 65¢ 62¢ $549 $523 −$26 (-5%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? No 93¢ 92¢ $326 $323 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-0%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 56¢ $48 $56 +$8 (+16%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $54 $51 −$3 (-6%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $45 $42 −$2 (-6%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 22¢ $3 $11 +$8 (+267%)
Will Raphinha record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+150%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $55 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $175 −$37 -21%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $483 +$77 +16%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $289 +$21 +7%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $223 −$119 -53%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $65 +$35 +54%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $39 −$18 -46%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 25 $47 −$6 -13%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $31 −$16 -52%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $6 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 25 $108 −$80 -74%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $127 −$18 -14%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 25 $155 +$5 +3%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $283 +$11 +4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $229 +$21 +9%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $241 −$6 -2%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $35 −$14 -39%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $48 −$14 -30%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $18 −$3 -15%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $89 −$27 -30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 −$5 -28%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $168 −$92 -55%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 25 $12 −$11 -88%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $42 +$8 +20%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $47 +$3 +7%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $426 −$249 -58%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $112 −$5 -5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $101 −$35 -34%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $149 −$18 -12%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 25 $70 +$17 +24%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $191 −$17 -9%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,105 +$103 +9%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $266 +$58 +22%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $761 +$27 +4%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $130 −$13 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $46 −$10 -21%
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 24 $75 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 10m
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 11m
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 11m
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 12m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 18m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 18m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 35m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 35m
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 48¢ $24 48m
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 48¢ $24 48m
Will Lamine Yamal record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Netherlands? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,305.29 · official $1,304.29 (match) · 539 history records