Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26c9…5af7 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$102 (-13%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$135
14 days−$135
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$24
politics 39% −$117
sports 6% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +59.7% +44.5% 42% 33% -25.6%
≤30d 12 +59.7% +44.5% 42% 33% -25.6%
≤90d 12 +59.7% +44.5% 42% 33% -25.6%
all 12 +59.7% +44.5% 42% 33% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.5% 33% -25.6%
10% +30.6% 8% -32.7%
15% +18.0% 8% -39.2%
20% +6.5% 8% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +130% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage8d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $65 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$10 +970%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $49 +$6 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 +$6 +15%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $78 −$35 -45%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $83 −$5 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $301 −$117 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 93¢ $64 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 93¢ $65 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 78¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 72¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 69¢ $55 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $55 25h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $49 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $50 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $43 27h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $43 27h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $46 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 94¢ $46 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $40 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $43 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $78 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $78 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $83 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $83 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $101 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 24¢ $101 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 16¢ $100 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 33¢ $100 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records