Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26c8…60c4
crypto · 1626 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1492 / 134
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1626 / 1626
History coverage115d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1626 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 89¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 80¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 71¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$2
other 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -0.1% -9.6% 83% 56% -11.3%
≤30d 337 +0.8% -8.8% 88% 39% -9.6%
≤90d 883 +0.9% -8.8% 92% 20% -9.0%
all 1626 +0.5% -9.1% 92% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 11% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.31 · official $1.62 (match) · 3500 history records