Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:07:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
26 0x26c7…dd1a crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$107 (-5%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate62%40W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$166
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 20% -13.8%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 20% -13.8%
≤90d 64 -6.2% -15.2% 62% 28% -16.4%
all 64 -6.2% -15.2% 62% 28% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 28% -16.4%
10% -23.3% 22% -24.4%
15% -30.7% 11% -31.7%
20% -37.5% 8% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses40 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage77d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $245 +$49 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $63 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $120 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$25 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $149 −$24 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 25 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 25 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 25 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 25 $45 −$28 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 25 $43 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 25 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 25 $39 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 25 $34 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 08 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 08 $64 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 08 $59 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 08 $92 +$26 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 08 $60 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 08 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 08 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 08 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 08 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 08 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 08 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 08 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 08 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 08 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 08 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 06 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 06 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 06 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 06 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 06 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $53 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records