Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:41:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26c6…1e14 sports 312 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,604 (-3%) realized −$1,562 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%153W / 156L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$742est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$880now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$166
7 days+$645
14 days+$1,072
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$1,760
politics 2% −$21
other 1% −$50
crypto 0% −$20
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +17.3% +6.1% 62% 62% +1.9%
≤30d 219 +0.1% -9.5% 52% 52% -9.8%
≤90d 309 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 50% -12.6%
all 309 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 50% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 50% -12.6%
10% -18.3% 48% -21.0%
15% -26.2% 45% -28.6%
20% -33.4% 35% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$153 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$880
Realized−$1,562
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses153 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$742
Open positions3
Markets (closed)309 / 312
History coverage88d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 70¢ 70¢ $507 $507 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 57¢ 57¢ $314 $316 +$3 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs CYBERSHOKE Esports 45¢ 25¢ $100 $56 −$45 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $100 +$85 +85%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $152 +$185 +122%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $276 +$107 +39%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $396 −$389 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $343 +$127 +37%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $113 +$51 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $189 −$189 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $176 −$175 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $118 +$212 +180%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $160 +$205 +128%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $189 +$86 +46%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $143 +$127 +89%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$3 -22%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$12 +122%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $72 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $357 +$343 +96%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $448 +$174 +39%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $410 +$200 +49%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $121 +$136 +113%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $131 −$131 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $356 −$351 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $277 −$275 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $85 +$100 +117%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $63 −$63 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $127 +$73 +57%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $164 +$136 +83%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $48 +$38 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $180 −$176 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $223 +$349 +156%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $135 +$84 +62%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $171 +$179 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $137 +$163 +119%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $126 +$124 +98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $107 +$65 +60%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $139 +$126 +90%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $224 +$120 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $175 +$60 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $213 +$162 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $147 +$153 +104%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $146 −$146 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $241 +$113 +47%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $151 −$148 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $85 −$84 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $37 −$37 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 45¢ $4 47m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 45¢ $56 48m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 45¢ $9 58m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 45¢ $4 58m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 45¢ $25 58m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 45¢ $2 58m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $138 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $4 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $117 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $92 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $159 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $318 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $4 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $7 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $7 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $3 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $2 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $4 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $3 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $3 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $2 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $5 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $20 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $21 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $3 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $4 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 44¢ $358 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 44¢ $38 18h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $3 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $879.50 · official $878.39 (match) · 1454 history records