Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:02:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26c6…f54e other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$490 (-49%) realized −$490 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -87% what you keep after slip
Net edge-87%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$266
crypto 28% −$126
other 19% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-85.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -83.5% -85.1% 4% 4% -63.9%
≤30d 28 -83.5% -85.1% 4% 4% -63.9%
≤90d 28 -83.5% -85.1% 4% 4% -63.9%
all 28 -83.5% -85.1% 4% 4% -63.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -85.1% 4% -63.9%
10% ← realistic here -86.5% 4% -67.3%
15% -87.8% 4% -70.5%
20% -89.0% 4% -73.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -88% → late -79% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$23 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 27
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $80 +$84 +105%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $13 −$2 -16%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $25 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $85 −$83 -98%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -94%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $149 −$146 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $204 −$55 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $99 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $10 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes $14 11h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $80 20h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $3 22h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $6 22h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $10 22h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $2 22h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? SELL Yes $11 22h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes $13 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $1 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $5 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $1 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $120 26h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $3 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $24 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 31h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $5 31h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $15 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $85 33h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes $5 33h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $14 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.85 · official $116.85 (match) · 40 history records