Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

26 0x26c2…56fd other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized +$17 · open −$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +222% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +180% what you keep after slip

Net edge+180%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+191.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+222.5%	+191.8%	100%	100%	+191.8%
≤30d	1	+222.5%	+191.8%	100%	100%	+191.8%
≤90d	1	+222.5%	+191.8%	100%	100%	+191.8%
all	1	+222.5%	+191.8%	100%	100%	+191.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+191.8%	100%	+191.8%
10%	+163.9%	100%	+163.9%
15%	+138.4%	100%	+138.4%
20%	+115.0%	100%	+115.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +222% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +222% · $-wt +222% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$111

Realized+$17

Unrealized−$18

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$110	$104	−$6 (-6%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$15	$8	−$8 (-50%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals	Yes	25¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$12	+222%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$17	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$5	1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.49 · official $111.49 (match) · 7 history records