Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x26c2…e5d1 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 553d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$56 (+8%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$29
other 16% −$6
weather 9% +$65
world 5% −$35
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +57.4% +42.4% 45% 45% +2.4%
≤30d 13 +47.5% +33.4% 46% 46% -2.4%
≤90d 20 +34.0% +21.3% 40% 40% -2.6%
all 23 +42.8% +29.2% 48% 43% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.2% 43% -0.8%
10% +16.8% 43% -10.3%
15% +5.6% 43% -19.0%
20% -4.8% 39% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$27 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage553d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 42¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 50¢ $56 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$25 +124%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$74 +146%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$58 +226%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$100 +650%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $40 +$35 +86%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? May 19 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Gen.G win First Stand 2026? Mar 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 21? Mar 21 $20 +$37 +187%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 22? Mar 21 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 22? Mar 21 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 21 $7 −$7 -100%
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner Mar 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19? Mar 20 $9 +$21 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18? Mar 18 $4 +$11 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 18 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 15? Mar 18 $21 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $57 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $66 26h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $20 29h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $51 38h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $31 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $76 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY 19¢ $36 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 54¢ $25 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $20 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $40 6d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 29d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 59d
Will Gen.G win First Stand 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 88d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 88d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 22? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 88d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 22? SELL Yes $5 88d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 22? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 88d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 22? BUY Yes $10 88d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 21? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 89d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 91d
Will Gen.G win First Stand 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 91d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 91d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 92d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $21 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.50 · official $121.50 (match) · 45 history records