Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
26 0x26c0…5741 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%22W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$9
economics 31% +$10
politics 28% −$3
sports 3% −$47
other 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -38.7% -44.5% 0% 0% -44.5%
≤30d 2 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 0% -38.1%
≤90d 5 -7.3% -16.2% 80% 0% -21.3%
all 31 -0.6% -10.0% 71% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses22 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage260d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $126 −$49 -39%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 02 $67 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Apr 02 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? Mar 13 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 13 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Feb 09 $22 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 09 $65 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 30 $2,487 +$3 +0%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 25 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Jan 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $2,435 +$5 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 17 $110 +$7 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 10 $31 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 10 $47 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Nov 29 $32 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Nov 18 $23 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 18 $33 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 18 $42 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Nov 18 $11 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 01 $109 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 21 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Oct 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $2,153 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $59 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $46 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 22¢ $18 11d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 25d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $80 68d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 99¢ $66 68d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $78 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $67 99d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $88 131d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $55 131d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $55 140d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $65 145d
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan BUY Japan 97¢ $63 146d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 146d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $63 153d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $55 153d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $33 153d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? SELL No 99¢ $34 153d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $51 153d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $51 156d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 156d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? BUY No 98¢ $22 156d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $34 156d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $140 176d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2,440 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2,435 183d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $2,435 183d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $2,432 184d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $78 192d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 87¢ $32 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.97 · official $58.97 (match) · 104 history records