Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
26 0x26be…7cd7 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$29 (+26%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$29
other 47% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +31.8% +19.3% 47% 47% +21.9%
≤30d 15 +31.8% +19.3% 47% 47% +21.9%
≤90d 15 +31.8% +19.3% 47% 47% +21.9%
all 15 +31.8% +19.3% 47% 47% +21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.3% 47% +21.9%
10% +7.9% 47% +10.2%
15% -2.6% 47% -0.4%
20% -12.1% 47% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$5 +165%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$4 -88%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$19 +366%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $8 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 5¢ $1 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 37¢ $3 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 41¢ $5 31h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $5 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $5 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $5 44h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $24 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $16 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.54 · official $23.67 (match) · 33 history records