Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
26 0x26bd…e53b sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$23 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$12
other 10% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 75% 50% -7.2%
≤30d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 75% 50% -7.2%
≤90d 4 -14.8% -22.9% 75% 50% -7.2%
all 4 -14.8% -22.9% 75% 50% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 50% -7.2%
10% -30.3% 0% -16.1%
15% -37.0% 0% -24.2%
20% -43.2% 0% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 70¢ 72¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Yes 82¢ 60¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $251 +$18 +7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$4 +18%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $269 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $251 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 11h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $112 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $100 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $25 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.01 · official $88.01 (match) · 10 history records