Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
26 0x26bd…1af5 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-9%) realized −$7 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$170
other 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.4% -4.6% 40% 40% -20.9%
≤30d 5 +5.4% -4.6% 40% 40% -20.9%
≤90d 5 +5.4% -4.6% 40% 40% -20.9%
all 5 +5.4% -4.6% 40% 40% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 40% -20.9%
10% -13.8% 40% -28.5%
15% -22.1% 40% -35.4%
20% -29.7% 40% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$137 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Conner Huertas Del Pino 37¢ 68¢ $139 $256 +$117 (+84%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $26 $16 −$10 (-38%)
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 59¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$242 +237%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $101 +$91 +90%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $112 −$111 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 37¢ $142 1h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 59¢ $202 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 18¢ $102 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 45¢ $102 4h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $192 5h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 53¢ $112 5h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $102 5h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $101 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.28 · official $372.28 (match) · 12 history records