Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26bc…70a3 sports 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$28 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%21W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$62
14 days−$95
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$82
other 27% −$197
crypto 1% −$2
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -26.3% -33.3% 29% 29% +4.1%
≤30d 92 -33.8% -40.1% 23% 23% -20.1%
≤90d 92 -33.8% -40.1% 23% 23% -20.1%
all 92 -33.8% -40.1% 23% 23% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 23% -20.1%
10% -45.8% 23% -27.7%
15% -51.1% 23% -34.7%
20% -55.9% 17% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses21 / 71
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage15d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 16¢ 16¢ $48 $47 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $27 −$26 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 27 $50 −$23 -47%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $16 +$12 +72%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $99 +$67 +68%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 +$4 +74%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$3 -25%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $20 −$8 -42%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $6 +$7 +102%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -40%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 24 $4 −$2 -56%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 +$13 +188%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $25 −$17 -67%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $53 +$40 +74%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $35 +$63 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $17 +$18 +107%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $18 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $4 −$3 -96%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $8 +$14 +170%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$16 +321%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $12 −$8 -67%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 −$2 -40%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $11 −$2 -18%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 +$3 +95%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $3 +$1 +48%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 −$13 -79%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $3 +$16 +544%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 16¢ $50 9m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $27 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 8¢ $27 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 14¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 4¢ $10 8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 25h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 26h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $28 26h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 27h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 43¢ $42 27h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 50¢ $124 27h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 27¢ $99 28h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 29h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 30h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 30h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 30h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 10¢ $12 30h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 31h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 16¢ $20 31h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Morocco 7¢ $2 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 27¢ $4 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 26¢ $6 2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco 29¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Canada 2¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.78 · official $46.78 (match) · 142 history records