Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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26 0x26b9…84cf crypto 1601 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate86%1397W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$39
14 days−$41
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$53
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -54.5% -58.9% 41% 27% -17.4%
≤30d 117 -28.4% -35.2% 62% 44% -18.3%
≤90d 604 -6.4% -15.4% 79% 24% -11.9%
all 1626 -3.4% -12.6% 86% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 9% -10.6%
10% -20.9% 0% -19.1%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.6% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1397 / 229
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1626 / 1601
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1626 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -753%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -724%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1631%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1821%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -922%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -726%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -791%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -868%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -843%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1594%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -903%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -886%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -752%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -449%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -735%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -735%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -660%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -511%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $2 28m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 98¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 4d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group BUY Misa Esports 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6d
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 96¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.24 · official $3.24 (match) · 3500 history records