Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x26b8…deb6 crypto 175 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,685 (+20%) realized +$1,736 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%89W / 80L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days+$113
14 days+$658
30 days+$1,217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$223
sports 41% +$895
world 7% +$309
other 4% −$53
culture 2% +$4
tech 1% +$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +16.2% +5.2% 56% 47% -4.0%
≤30d 119 +10.8% +0.2% 53% 50% +7.8%
≤90d 169 +9.8% -0.6% 53% 50% +7.8%
all 169 +9.8% -0.6% 53% 50% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 50% +7.8%
10% -10.1% 46% -2.5%
15% -18.8% 41% -11.9%
20% -26.8% 38% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$31 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$1,736
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses89 / 80
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions6
Markets (closed)169 / 175
History coverage62d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $51 $55 +$4 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $213 −$204 -96%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $41 −$27 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $209 +$81 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $131 +$68 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$22 +237%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 +$23 +38%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +180%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $278 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $189 +$42 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +146%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $71 +$109 +153%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$42 +413%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $90 +$27 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $64 +$38 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$9 -66%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$9 +51%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$61 +158%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $51 −$10 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $491 +$411 +84%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$6 -42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $100 −$95 -95%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $50 +$54 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $16 +$21 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $93 +$53 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $100 −$7 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $94 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 07 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $148 +$147 +99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $76 +$126 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $213 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 18¢ $14 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $50 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $290 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $209 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $199 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $131 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $83 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $61 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $203 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $220 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $222 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $180 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.44 · official $97.44 (match) · 452 history records