Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x26b3…98f4
other · 97 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$188 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$238 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized−$238
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses14 / 74
Open positions11
Markets (closed)88 / 97
History coverage31d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day75.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 11 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$97
14 days−$137
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 48¢ 34¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 44¢ 30¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-31%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 50¢ 12¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-76%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 40¢ 14¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 50¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+76%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 50¢ 66¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+32%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 50¢ 69¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+39%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 32¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 40¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -688%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $82 +$22 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $119 −$7 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $117 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $90 −$11 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $130 −$6 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $83 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $69 −$32 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $73 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $155 +$19 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $62 −$10 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $19 −$9 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $88 −$42 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $26 −$5 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$3 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $45 −$4 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $75 −$39 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $67 +$19 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $27 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$2 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 02 $17 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 02 $27 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 02 $9 −$2 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 02 $13 −$5 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $49 −$17 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $21 −$10 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $22 +$4 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $89 −$30 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 27 $14 −$12 -87%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $46 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$246
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $1 9m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $1 10m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1 25m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 40m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 45m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 45m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -30.0% -36.7% 10% 10% -10.1%
≤30d 84 +27.8% +15.6% 14% 10% -15.0%
≤90d 88 +27.5% +15.3% 16% 11% -13.8%
all 88 +27.5% +15.3% 16% 11% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover75.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.3% 11% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here +4.3% 9% -22.0%
15% -5.8% 6% -29.6%
20% -15.0% 6% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.23 · official $26.77 (match) · 3500 history records