Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26b1…6343 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,110 (-18%) realized −$4,062 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 24L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$718per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$583est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$379
7 days−$1,745
14 days−$4,893
30 days−$4,893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$3,027
other 15% −$1,914
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -35.9% -42.0% 18% 18% -27.3%
≤30d 31 -38.5% -44.3% 23% 23% -31.3%
≤90d 31 -38.5% -44.3% 23% 23% -31.3%
all 31 -38.5% -44.3% 23% 23% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.3% 23% -31.3%
10% ← realistic here -49.6% 16% -37.9%
15% -54.5% 13% -43.9%
20% -59.0% 10% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$795) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -40% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$407 vs −$337 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$4,062
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$583
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage10d
Avg bet$718
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 1¢ 0¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $927 −$253 -27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,693 +$632 +37%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,963 +$372 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,172 −$1,134 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,078 −$795 -74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $386 −$102 -26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $550 −$165 -30%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $348 −$216 -62%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $104 −$83 -80%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,900 +$1,285 +68%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $464 −$396 -85%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,755 −$1,028 -59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,468 +$96 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,939 −$1,473 -76%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $205 −$11 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $103 −$11 -10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $429 +$215 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $672 −$371 -55%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $145 +$138 +95%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $104 −$75 -73%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $103 −$24 -23%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $207 −$200 -96%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $358 +$113 +32%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $207 −$200 -96%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,222 −$892 -73%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $94 −$90 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $62 −$20 -32%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 1¢ $52 47m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 1¢ $51 47m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 16¢ $52 56m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 16¢ $104 56m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 20¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 17¢ $313 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 15¢ $104 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 26¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $103 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 27¢ $516 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $309 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 98¢ $831 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 96¢ $271 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 94¢ $354 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $873 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 24¢ $569 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 38¢ $301 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 15¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 15¢ $52 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 19¢ $103 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 19¢ $103 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 27¢ $52 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 28¢ $52 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.50 · official $2.50 (match) · 206 history records