Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26ab…02b1 crypto 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%71W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$35
crypto 33% −$11
other 29% +$19
culture 1% −$4
world 0% +$1
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -10.2% -18.7% 59% 41% -9.5%
≤30d 71 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 39% -8.3%
≤90d 142 -10.1% -18.6% 50% 36% -12.3%
all 142 -10.1% -18.6% 50% 36% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 36% -12.3%
10% -26.4% 20% -20.7%
15% -33.5% 12% -28.4%
20% -40.0% 7% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses71 / 71
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage51d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $45 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 $0 +47%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +26%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 +$9 +40%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$8 -79%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$4 -54%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -82%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$2 +18%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +21%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -34%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $13 +$1 +8%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $4 −$3 -86%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$7 -36%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 +$3 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$1 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $34 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 28 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 28 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 26 $18 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 26 $7 +$14 +192%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $6 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $8 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $8 7h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $3 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $0 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $2 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 25¢ $0 10h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal $0 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 25¢ $4 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 11h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $2 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $34 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 486 history records