Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
26 0x26aa…026c sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$770 (+3%) realized +$771 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%53W / 62L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$282
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 9 -85.8% -87.1% 11% 11% -60.5%
all 115 -2.7% -12.0% 46% 44% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 44% -8.6%
10% -20.4% 42% -17.3%
15% -28.1% 36% -25.3%
20% -35.2% 30% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$159 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$771
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses53 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)115 / 117
History coverage231d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $29 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $50 −$49 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $48 −$47 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $24 −$24 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $130 −$128 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $250 −$248 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $230 −$226 -98%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $20 −$19 -97%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 01 $32 −$31 -97%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 30 $400 +$111 +28%
Will Canada vs. Iceland end in a draw? Mar 30 $5 +$18 +354%
Will Scotland vs. Japan end in a draw? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hungary vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Mar 28 $200 +$167 +84%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $425 +$533 +125%
Bulls vs. Thunder Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 26 $148 +$72 +49%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mar 23 $200 +$184 +92%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $124 +$335 +270%
Raptors vs. Nuggets Mar 21 $100 +$119 +119%
Knicks vs. Nets Mar 21 $200 +$56 +28%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies Mar 21 $376 +$273 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $42 +$34 +82%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Mar 18 $150 +$56 +37%
Thunder vs. Magic Mar 18 $300 +$86 +29%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 17 $581 +$362 +62%
Suns vs. Celtics Mar 17 $500 +$81 +16%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Mar 16 $972 +$85 +9%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 15 $1,383 −$605 -44%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $942 +$634 +67%
76ers vs. Pistons Mar 12 $36 −$3 -7%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 12 $300 −$142 -47%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 05 $722 −$722 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers Jan 05 $300 +$169 +56%
Timberwolves vs. Wizards Jan 05 $200 +$53 +26%
Thunder vs. Suns Jan 05 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jan 04 $379 −$379 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors Jan 04 $1,652 +$727 +44%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Jan 04 $690 −$579 -84%
Hornets vs. Bulls Jan 04 $200 +$141 +70%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jan 04 $379 −$79 -21%
76ers vs. Knicks Jan 04 $278 −$278 -100%
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? Jan 03 $103 +$103 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 1h
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 26¢ $50 55d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 29¢ $48 55d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets $4 57d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets $10 57d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets $10 57d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 46¢ $130 61d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 65¢ $250 88d
Cavaliers vs. Lakers BUY Cavaliers 31¢ $50 88d
Cavaliers vs. Lakers BUY Cavaliers 53¢ $100 88d
Cavaliers vs. Lakers BUY Cavaliers 45¢ $80 88d
Raptors vs. Pistons BUY Raptors $10 88d
Raptors vs. Pistons BUY Raptors $10 88d
Knicks vs. Rockets BUY Knicks $32 88d
Warriors vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 79¢ $300 90d
Warriors vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 76¢ $100 90d
Will Canada vs. Iceland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 91d
Will Scotland vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 91d
Will Hungary vs. Slovenia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 91d
Jazz vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 47¢ $50 92d
Jazz vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 53¢ $50 92d
Jazz vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 60¢ $100 92d
Clippers vs. Pacers BUY Clippers 35¢ $100 92d
Clippers vs. Pacers BUY Clippers 44¢ $125 92d
Bulls vs. Thunder BUY Bulls 14¢ $10 92d
Heat vs. Cavaliers BUY Heat $5 92d
Rockets vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 17¢ $10 92d
Hawks vs. Celtics BUY Hawks 23¢ $50 92d
Clippers vs. Pacers BUY Clippers 47¢ $100 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.38 · official $62.38 (match) · 452 history records